Classic fight revisited · 2021
Fury vs Wilder: The Trilogy Revisited
Editorial feature. The analysis and verdict below are our writers' opinion. Records, ages and fight histories in the article come from public reporting at the time of writing, not from our Boxing Data API feed.
The verdict: Tyson Fury beat Deontay Wilder over their three fights, and the decisive factor was Fury changing his approach, not Wilder's power fading. In the first fight, Fury outboxed Wilder and still had to settle for a draw. In the second, he switched to aggression and stopped him. In the third, he survived two knockdowns and knocked Wilder out in the 11th. Across 30 rounds, the trilogy shows how a heavyweight puncher keeps his chance in every fight, and how adapting the game plan can be worth more than any single physical advantage.
The trilogy at a glance
| Fight | Date | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| I | 1 Dec 2018 | Staples Center, Los Angeles | Split draw (115-111 Wilder, 114-112 Fury, 113-113) |
| II | 22 Feb 2020 | MGM Grand, Las Vegas | Fury TKO 7 (1:39) |
| III | 9 Oct 2021 | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas | Fury KO 11 (1:10) |
Wilder's WBC heavyweight title was at stake in the first two fights. The third was for the WBC and The Ring titles Fury had won in the rematch.
Tale of the tape (before fight III)
| Tyson Fury | Deontay Wilder | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 30-0-1 | 42-1-1 |
| KOs | 21 | 41 |
| Age | 33 | 35 |
| Height | 6ft 9in | 6ft 7in |
| Reach | 85in | 83in |
| Stance | Orthodox (switch-hitter) | Orthodox |
Last five fights before fight III
| Tyson Fury | Result | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Deontay Wilder | W TKO 7 | Feb 2020 |
| Otto Wallin | W UD 12 | Sep 2019 |
| Tom Schwarz | W TKO 2 | Jun 2019 |
| Deontay Wilder | D SD 12 | Dec 2018 |
| Francesco Pianeta | W UD 10 | Aug 2018 |
| Deontay Wilder | Result | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Tyson Fury | L TKO 7 | Feb 2020 |
| Luis Ortiz | W KO 7 | Nov 2019 |
| Dominic Breazeale | W KO 1 | May 2019 |
| Tyson Fury | D SD 12 | Dec 2018 |
| Luis Ortiz | W TKO 10 | Mar 2018 |
Fight I: the boxer and the draw
Fury had returned in 2018 from a long break and weight problems, with only two warm-up fights. Against Wilder he outboxed him for most of the fight, using feints, movement and his size to make Wilder miss. Wilder had little else to offer, but his power kept him in the fight. He dropped Fury in round 9 and then again in round 12 with a right-left combination that looked to have ended it. Fury got up and finished the round strongly. The split draw was widely criticised, and many observers believed Fury had won. The lesson was immediate: you can outbox Wilder for 11 rounds and still be one punch away from losing.
Fight II: the change of approach
For the rematch, Fury joined trainer SugarHill Steward and went in heavier, with a stated plan to walk Wilder down. Many expected Wilder to win. Fury went forward from the start, used his weight to push Wilder back and dropped him in round 3. A second knockdown followed in round 5. Wilder's legs were gone, and his corner threw in the towel in round 7. Fury had beaten the most dangerous puncher in the division by taking away the space Wilder needed to throw his right hand.
Fight III: the war
After an arbitration ruling forced the third fight, Fury went in as a clear favourite. The fight proved far more dramatic than expected. Fury dropped Wilder in round 3. Wilder, who had come in much heavier, recovered and knocked Fury down twice in round 4. Fury steadied himself and kept leaning on Wilder, and the extra weight and body work slowly took their toll. Wilder went down again in round 10 and was knocked out in round 11.
Key factors across the trilogy
1. Adapting the game plan
Fury didn't win by doing the same thing better. He changed what he did. Boxing at range earned him a draw; pressure and weight earned him two stoppages.
2. Durability under heavy fire
Fury was knocked down four times across the trilogy and got up every time. His powers of recovery are the reason punchers have so rarely been able to finish the job against him.
3. The puncher's chance never goes away
Even in the fights he lost, Wilder came close to winning with one punch. A heavy-handed heavyweight keeps that chance until the final bell.
4. Wilder's limitations
Wilder never developed a reliable jab or an answer to being pressured. Once Fury took away his space, he had no alternative plan.
Lessons for predicting fights today
- Rematches favour the fighter who can change his approach. In a rematch, look for the fighter with more tactical options.
- Clear favourites can still be in danger. Fury was favoured in the third fight and was knocked down twice. Never write off a puncher's chance.
- Weight and physicality matter at heavyweight. Leaning on an opponent and wearing him down is a legitimate tactic, and it is underrated in predictions.
- Use the full fight history. Previous meetings between the same two fighters tell you more than any other evidence.
Those lessons are directly relevant to Fury's fight with Anthony Joshua in Cardiff this December. Joshua is another heavy hitter with a right hand that can end the fight at any moment, and Fury's best way to beat him is to lean on him and wear him down.
Final result
Fight I: split draw. Fight II: Fury TKO 7 (won the WBC and The Ring heavyweight titles). Fight III: Fury KO 11 (retained the WBC and The Ring titles).
Related reading
- Fury vs Joshua Prediction: Fury's next big test against a heavy hitter
- Tyson vs Douglas: The Upset in Tokyo Revisited
- Ali vs Frazier: The Fight of the Century Revisited
Historical feature. Not betting advice. 18+ – see responsible gambling.