Super Middleweight · Main Event
Christian Mbilli vs Canelo Alvarez prediction
WBC World Super Middleweight Champion
Our prediction our estimate – not API data
Canelo Alvarez to win
Confidence: Toss-up
Our model makes Canelo Alvarez the narrowest of favourites with an estimated 52% chance of winning. The edge comes mainly from experience. Christian Mbilli scores better on title/ranking status. KO data is missing for at least one fighter, so we do not call a method of victory.
Built only from the API records and rankings below. It can't see age, activity, injuries, styles or weight-cut issues. How we predict.
Tale of the tape
| Christian Mbilli | Canelo Alvarez | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-0-1 | Record (W-L-D) | 63-3-2 |
| 30 | Pro bouts | 68 |
| 143 | Rounds boxed | 532 |
| France | Nationality | Mexico |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 5' 9" / 174 cm | Height | 5' 9" / 175 cm |
| 72" / 183 cm | Reach | 70.5" / 179 cm |
| 1995 | Born (year) | 1990 |
| 2017 | Debut | 2005 |
| WBC champion | Sanctioning bodies (Super Middleweight) | WBA #3 · WBC #1 |
API data · fighter profiles & rankings · cached . “—” = not provided by the API. Canelo Alvarez: profile matched by exact name within Super Middleweight (the fight lists a different fighter ID).
Recent form
Christian Mbilli
No recent fights in our stored data yet. Our data plan only returns fights from about the last week, so form builds up over time. Career record: 29-0-1.
Canelo Alvarez
No recent fights in our stored data yet. Our data plan only returns fights from about the last week, so form builds up over time. Career record: 63-3-2.
Head-to-head
We have no previous meeting between Christian Mbilli and Canelo Alvarez in our stored data.
How the numbers add up
| Factor (our model) | Mbilli | Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Record (smoothed win rate) | +0.85 | +0.83 |
| Experience (pro bouts) | +1.03 | +1.27 |
| Title / ranking status | +0.40 | +0.25 |
| Total | 2.28 | 2.35 |
Win chance = logistic(1.3 × points difference), capped at 25–75%.