Fight preview · 11 Dec 2026

Tyson Fury vs Anthony Joshua Prediction

Editorial preview. The analysis and verdict below are our writers' opinion, not the data model. Records, ages and fight histories in the article come from public reporting at the time of writing, not from our Boxing Data API feed.

Our verdict: Tyson Fury to beat Anthony Joshua, most likely by a late stoppage. Fury's size, feints and ability to tie up on the inside fit almost exactly the problems Joshua has struggled with throughout his career. Joshua has been dropped or stopped by four different opponents. We think Fury can take away AJ's jab, make him work, and wear him down until something gives in the second half of the fight. Joshua's power means the upset is always possible, but the matchup favours Fury.

VS

Fight details

• Date: Friday 11 December 2026. The main-event ringwalks are expected in the early hours of Saturday, UK time.
• Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff
• At stake: Vacant WBA "super" heavyweight title, over 12 rounds
• Broadcast: Netflix

Turki Alalshikh announced the fight on 24 September, ending more than a decade of failed negotiations. Early reports said it would be a non-title fight. Since then, Fury's promoter Frank Warren has said the WBA's "super" title will be on the line. That is a debatable sanction, given the WBA already has an active champion in Murat Gassiev, but it is the current position. The other heavyweight belts are held elsewhere: Agit Kabayel has the WBC title, Daniel Dubois the WBO and Filip Hrgović the IBF, while Oleksandr Usyk holds The Ring's title.

Tale of the tape

Last five fights

Key factors

1. Fury's style is built to beat Joshua's

Joshua is at his best against opponents who stand in front of him at mid-range, where he can set up his jab and land his right hand. Fury almost never fights at that range. He feints, changes stance, controls the distance with his long jab and then smothers his opponent and leans on them whenever they get close. Usyk beat Joshua twice by denying him the range he wanted. Fury has a different style, but he can deny Joshua the same thing, and he has a big size advantage on top. Joshua has never had to deal with a 6ft 9in opponent who moves the way Fury does.

2. Joshua's durability is the biggest question

Andy Ruiz, Usyk (who hurt him badly), Dubois and, most recently, Kristian Prenga have all dropped or badly hurt Joshua. In July, Prenga put him down twice in the first round before Joshua recovered and won by KO in the second. That comeback showed AJ's resilience and power. It also showed that his defence can still collapse when someone lands first. Fury isn't a one-punch knockout artist, but his right hand, uppercut and pressure on the inside are exactly the tools to take advantage.

3. Can Fury still fight at the top level?

Fury lost both fights against Usyk. He has since returned with a wide points win over Arslanbek Makhmudov and a seventh-round retirement win over the 46-year-old Mariusz Wach. Neither performance proves he is back at his 2020 level. At 38, his reflexes and work rate are a fair worry, and in the second Usyk fight he looked to be fighting at a pace he couldn't maintain. But Joshua's strengths are not Usyk's: he doesn't have the footwork or the volume that troubled Fury. This is a better style matchup for Fury than either of his recent defeats.

4. Joshua's power changes the fight

Joshua has 27 KOs in 30 wins, and his right hand can end any fight. He also has a better finishing instinct than Fury. Wilder dropped Fury four times across their trilogy, which shows heavy single shots can catch him. Joshua's best chance is to land a clean right hand early, before Fury starts tying him up and wearing him down. If AJ is going to win, it is most likely by knockout inside the first six rounds.

5. Mental and emotional factors

Both men arrive with personal history. Joshua lost two close friends, Sina Ghami and Latif Ayodele, in a car crash in Nigeria, and how he has dealt with that grief is a fair question for anyone predicting his performance. Fury has spent years getting under Joshua's skin in public, and the build-up will be fierce. Joshua's tendency to fight cautiously and second-guess himself on big nights is a recurring theme, and Fury is better than anyone at exploiting it.

How the fight plays out

Expect a cagey start. Joshua will want to stay behind his jab and load up on the right hand, while Fury will feint, switch stances and talk, trying to make AJ hesitate. The early rounds are Joshua's best chance: Fury is at his most vulnerable while he is still settling in, and AJ's right hand at full power is the most dangerous punch in the fight. From the middle rounds, Fury's size and clinching should start to take their toll. He leans on Joshua, ties him up and lands uppercuts and short right hands as AJ tries to reset. Joshua's work rate drops when he is under that kind of pressure. By the championship rounds he could be exhausted, and that is when Fury's chance of a stoppage is at its highest.

Final prediction

Tyson Fury to win by TKO in round 10 (we expect the stoppage between rounds 8 and 11).

The next most likely result is a Fury decision. An early Joshua knockout is the main upset route; a Joshua points win is the least likely result.

Related reading

• Fury vs Wilder: The Trilogy Revisited: how Fury handled the heaviest punch in the division
• Tyson vs Douglas: The Upset in Tokyo Revisited: what an underdog with a size advantage can do
• Ali vs Frazier: The Fight of the Century Revisited